Sweden is on course to generate an estimated 198.4 million tonnes of waste in 2026, or roughly 437 billion pounds.
The last year anyone measured is 2022, when Sweden generated 163.9 million tonnes. More than three quarters of it, 126.7 million tonnes, was rock and sand left behind by its metal mines.
Sweden landfilled just 0.6% of its household-type waste in 2024, the third-lowest share in the EU. It still generated 163.9 million tonnes of waste in 2022, over three times the EU average per person, because most Swedish waste comes from mines, not bins.
Swedish waste totals (2010-2026)
Eurostat measures national waste every two years, so the table runs on even years, carried forward from 2022 to 2026, with each change measured against the previous reading.
| Year | Tonnes | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 198,416,601 | +22.8 million (+13.0%) |
| 2024 | 175,579,936 | +11.7 million (+7.1%) |
| 2022 | 163,881,439 | +12.1 million (+7.9%) |
| 2020 | 151,823,910 | +13.2 million (+9.5%) |
| 2018 | 138,667,585 | -3.0 million (-2.1%) |
| 2016 | 141,625,718 | -25.4 million (-15.2%) |
| 2014 | 167,026,886 | +10.7 million (+6.9%) |
| 2012 | 156,306,504 | +38.7 million (+32.9%) |
| 2010 | 117,645,185 | baseline |
Note: Eurostat's waste generation collection, covering all economic activities plus households. 2022 is the newest year it has published, so the 2024 and 2026 rows are our own estimates, built as the next section explains.
The two years the Swedish line bent
The total did not climb smoothly. It jumped by 38.7 million tonnes between 2010 and 2012, and almost all of that, 40.5 million tonnes, came from mining, which rose from 89.0 million to 129.5 million tonnes.
The Geological Survey of Sweden (SGU) puts the rise in metal ore output in the early 2010s down to one mine, Boliden's Aitik copper mine in the far north.
The second bend ran the other way. Between 2014 and 2016 the total fell by 25.4 million tonnes, and mining waste alone fell by 29.2 million, from 138.9 million to 109.7 million. Eurostat's figures do not say why. Since 2018 the line has risen in every period.
How Sweden's mines set the 2026 estimate
The two newest rows in the table are estimates built on the measured 2022 figure. Each part of that figure was moved forward by a measured guide where one exists, and held at its 2022 level where none does.
| Part of 2022 | Share | Moved by |
|---|---|---|
| Mining | 77.3% | SGU survey |
| Households | 2.6% | Waste per person |
| Everything else | 20.1% | Held flat |
Mining carries the estimate, and it has a measured guide of its own. SGU surveys every Swedish mine each year and publishes how much waste rock and tailings they produced, most recently for 2025, in SGU's annual mining statistics.
Tested on the years Eurostat has already measured, that survey landed within 3.0% of Eurostat's real mining figure in each of the three periods tried, and within 0.1% over the four years from 2018 to 2022. Mining waste in SGU's survey went from 128.8 million tonnes in 2022 to 163.5 million in 2025.
That 2025 level is carried into 2026, since SGU's 2026 figures are not due until 2027. Household waste is moved by the rise in municipal waste per person, from 395 kg in 2022 to 427 kg in 2024, and by population growth.
Why an output index could not do the job
The obvious guide, Eurostat's index of mining output, fails for Sweden. Between 2014 and 2016 the index rose 11.8% while mining waste fell 21.0%, and between 2020 and 2022 the index fell 9.3% while mining waste rose 9.1%.
SGU's own figures show why. Swedish mines lifted 80 million tonnes of ore in 2025, level with 2024, yet waste rock rose from 83.4 million to 106.4 million tonnes. How much rock has to be moved to reach the ore changes from year to year, and an output index cannot see it.
How wide the range is
Put together, the estimate comes to 175.6 million tonnes for 2024 and 198.4 million for 2026, with 79.9% of the total moved on a measured guide. The range around 2026 runs from 187 million to 212 million tonnes.
The low end holds the unguided fifth at its largest four-year fall since 2004 and takes mining at the survey's largest miss. The high end does the same with the largest rise. The range does not allow for mining moving again between 2025 and 2026.
Where Sweden stands in Europe
Sweden's 163.9 million tonnes in 2022 was 7.4% of the EU's 2.23 billion tonnes, the fifth-largest total after Germany, France, Italy and Poland. Per person it came to 15,627 kg, more than three times the EU average of 4,981 kg, and only Finland and Estonia recorded more.
Mining explains both numbers. Swedish mines produced 25.4% of all the mining waste recorded in the EU in 2022, second only to Romania. Take mining out and the remaining 37.2 million tonnes works out at about 3,540 kg per person, below the EU average for all waste.
Why mining makes up three quarters of Swedish waste
Mining waste comes in two kinds. Waste rock is the barren rock dug out to reach the ore, and tailings are the fine sand left over once the metal has been separated from the ore. SGU's figures for 2025 split them by the kind of mine that produced them.
| Mines | Waste rock (tonnes) | Tailings (tonnes) |
|---|---|---|
| Iron ore mines | 40.3 million | 10.6 million |
| Copper, zinc, lead and gold mines | 66.1 million | 46.5 million |
| All Swedish mines | 106.4 million | 57.1 million |
Note: SGU's annual mining statistics, 2025, calculated from each mine's reported output. Together the two kinds came to 163.5 million tonnes.
Aitik alone moved 63.5 million tonnes of waste rock in 2025, almost all of the waste rock from Sweden's non-iron mines. SGU describes its ore as low in metal but mined in very large volumes, which is exactly the kind of deposit that leaves a large pile behind.
SGU also reports what happened to it. Of the mining waste its survey covered in 2025, 69% went to a deposit site, 24% went back underground as fill, 6% was used in the mines' own infrastructure, and 1% was sold.
The rest of the Swedish pile
Counted by who produced it, Sweden's 2022 total breaks down like this, set beside the same split for the whole EU.
| Sector | Sweden | EU |
|---|---|---|
| Mining and quarrying | 77.3% | 22.4% |
| Construction | 8.3% | 38.7% |
| Waste and water services | 5.2% | 10.5% |
| Manufacturing | 3.0% | 10.3% |
| Households | 2.6% | 8.8% |
| Everything else | 3.7% | 9.2% |
Note: Eurostat's waste generation collection, 2022 reference year. Eurostat does not publish Sweden's 2022 manufacturing figure, so its 3.0%, about 4.8 million tonnes, is what is left once every other sector is subtracted. Rounded shares add up to 100.1% and 99.9%.
Construction and demolition, the largest source of waste across the EU, produced 13.6 million tonnes in Sweden in 2022. That is a real amount, but next to the mines it is less than a tenth of the Swedish total.
What Swedish homes send for collection
Sweden generated 427 kg of municipal waste per person in 2024, the newest year Eurostat has published, against an EU average of 517 kg. Among the 20 member states with a 2024 figure, only Estonia, Poland and Hungary recorded less.
The Swedish figure rose from 392 kg in 2023, though countries differ in how much commercial waste they count as municipal, so part of any gap between two of them is a counting difference rather than a difference in what people throw away.
How much packaging Sweden throws away
Packaging is the part of the pile that extended producer responsibility covers, and the part a company selling into Sweden pays for directly.
Sweden generated 1.32 million tonnes of packaging waste in 2023, its newest year on record. That works out at 125 kg per person, against an EU average of 178 kg, and only Slovakia, Cyprus and Greece recorded less among the 23 member states that reported 2023.
The table below breaks the 2023 total down by material, with the share of each that was recycled.
| Material | Tonnes | Recycled |
|---|---|---|
| Paper and cardboard | 630,852 | 80.9% |
| Plastic | 358,758 | 28.6% |
| Glass | 243,495 | 84.7% |
| Metal | 68,588 | 86.4% |
| Other | 13,062 | 0% |
| Wood | 4,468 | 94.8% |
Note: Eurostat's packaging waste collection, 2023 reference year, with recycling shares on the basis set for the 2025 targets. The six lines add up to the full total of 1,319,223 tonnes.
Plastic is the weak spot. Sweden recycled 28.6% of its plastic packaging in 2023, against 41.7% across the EU, and only Denmark, Austria and France reported a lower rate. Glass and metal both did better than the EU average.
The wood line is best read with care. Sweden's reported wood packaging fell from 207,819 tonnes in 2021 to 4,468 tonnes in 2023, and a figure that small makes its 94.8% rate a weak guide.
Who pays for packaging in Sweden?
One authority, Naturvårdsverket (the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency), runs producer responsibility for packaging through the Producentansvarsregistret producer register. A company placing packaged goods on the Swedish market goes through three steps.
- Sign with a scheme. Before the first sale it must have an approved producer responsibility organisation, and two are approved for packaging, NPA and TMR.
- Notify the register. It notifies Naturvårdsverket before the first sale, at any volume. Bottles and cans in the deposit return system still need the notification.
- Report each year. It reports the weight of packaging it placed on the market by 31 March, in practice usually through its scheme.
The full set of duties is on what producers have to register for in Sweden, and the packaging rules in detail on packaging EPR in Sweden. Producers comparing the tools that prepare those reports can start with the EPR software built for the Swedish market.
Why Sweden burns more waste than it buries
Sweden sent 0.6% of its municipal waste to landfill in 2024, against 21.3% across the EU. EU rules require that share to fall to 10% or less by 2035, and Sweden is already far below it.
What it does instead is burn it. Sweden sent 52.7% of its municipal waste to incineration with energy recovery in 2024, double the EU's 25.5%, and recycled 46.1%, a little under the EU's 48.1%.
Sweden against the EU packaging targets
The EU packaging regulation sets recycling targets in its Article 52, one wave due by the end of 2025 and one by the end of 2030. The table sets Sweden's 2023 rates against both waves.
| Packaging | Targets 2025 / 2030 | Swedish rate |
|---|---|---|
| All packaging | 65% / 70% | 68.5% |
| Paper and cardboard | 75% / 85% | 80.9% |
| Glass | 70% / 75% | 84.7% |
| Ferrous metals | 70% / 80% | 83.3% |
| Aluminium | 50% / 60% | 89.1% |
| Wood | 25% / 30% | 94.8% |
| Plastic | 50% / 55% | 28.6% |
Note: Regulation (EU) 2025/40, Article 52(1). Sweden's rates are Eurostat's, 2023 reference year.
On its 2023 figures Sweden met six of the seven targets for 2025. The one it missed was plastic, by 21.4 percentage points, which is the widest gap on the page.
For 2030 it already met four, for glass, ferrous metals, aluminium and wood. It was 1.5 points short on all packaging, 4.1 on paper and cardboard and 26.4 on plastic. Its overall rate rose from 59.6% in 2021 to 68.5% in 2023, joint 10th of the 23 member states that reported.
Frequently asked questions about Sweden's waste
Below are the eight questions that come up most often about Sweden's waste figures.
How much waste does Sweden produce each year?
Sweden is estimated to produce around 198.4 million tonnes of waste in 2026. The newest measured year is 2022, when it generated 163.9 million tonnes, the fifth-largest total in the EU and 15,627 kg per person.
Can Sweden's waste be compared with other countries?
Only with care. Eurostat notes that differences between countries reflect consumption and wealth but also how municipal waste is collected and managed, so part of any gap between two countries is counting practice rather than rubbish.
Why does Sweden produce so much waste per person?
Because of its mines. Mining produced 126.7 million tonnes in 2022, 77.3% of the Swedish total against 22.4% across the EU. Spread over 10.5 million people, that rock and sand lifts Sweden to more than three times the EU average.
What is waste rock and what are tailings?
Waste rock is the barren rock dug out to reach the ore. Tailings are the fine sand left once the metal is separated from it. Swedish mines produced 106.4 million tonnes of waste rock and 57.1 million tonnes of tailings in 2025.
Why is the 2026 estimate so much higher than 2022?
Because Sweden's mines produced far more waste. SGU's yearly survey shows mining waste rising from 128.8 million tonnes in 2022 to 163.5 million in 2025, most of it extra waste rock, while ore output stayed level.
Does Sweden still send waste to landfill?
Hardly any household waste. Sweden landfilled 0.6% of its municipal waste in 2024, against 21.3% across the EU. It burned 52.7% for energy and recycled 46.1%. Most mining waste, by contrast, goes to deposit sites at the mines.
Does Sweden meet the EU packaging recycling targets?
Mostly. On its 2023 figures Sweden met six of the seven targets for 2025, and its overall rate of 68.5% cleared the 65% target. The exception is plastic, recycled at 28.6% against a 50% target.
Who runs packaging EPR in Sweden?
Naturvårdsverket, the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency. A packaging producer signs with an approved scheme, NPA or TMR, notifies Naturvårdsverket before its first sale and reports the weight it placed on the market by 31 March each year.
Images: AleWi
